Making Strides: The Possible, Probable and Preferable Future of Running

Recently breaking into the fitness industry as a newly-qualified personal trainer, a piece of advice that resonated deeply with me was to prepare for an ever-changing landscape. Since entering this dynamic field, I have noticed several shifts and trends emerge, particularly influenced by the growing role of technology in fitness. 

In 2024, running has notably surged in popularity, becoming a universal activity. This rise is largely attributed to its social appeal, such as run clubs, and the health benefits it offers, further enhanced by technology. Experiencing this transformation firsthand, I’ve seen how tools like Strava (social media for runners), wearable fitness trackers, and online running apps and groups have revolutionised running. They’ve not only added value but have fundamentally changed our running habits. 

In this blog post, we will examine the future of running using Wendell Bell’s futures framework, focusing on possible, probable, and preferable futures projected for 2030. We aim to understand how technology could further impact running, potentially enhancing community connections, personal health, and the overall concept of fitness.

Wendell Bell’s Futurist Model

Wendell Bell’s futures framework provides a method for examining the future, applicable to understanding changes in running. Bell divides the future into three categories: possible, probable, and preferable futures, each offering perspectives on the evolution of running.

• Possible Futures look at what could happen beyond current trends. For running, this might include new technologies like energy-harvesting gear and VR marathons, showing how technology could change running.
• Probable Futures are based on current trends and data, forecasting likely developments. In running, this could mean more use of wearable technology for tracking and the growth of online communities, suggesting a continued move towards digital and social aspects.
• Preferable Futures consider the outcomes we hope to see, based on our values. For running, this involves making the activity more accessible and using technology to support inclusivity and overall health.

By applying Bell’s model, we can get a comprehensive view of what the future of running could look like, considering where we might be heading, where we want to go, and how to get there.

Possible Futures

Looking ahead to 2030, running could see significant changes due to emerging technologies and societal trends. These advancements, still in early development stages, have the potential to redefine running, blending the physical with the digital, and personalising the experience to unprecedented levels.

By 2030, running could be transformed by a series of emerging technologies, reshaping the sport into a more personalised, interactive, and accessible experience. Tailoring training and nutrition plans to an individual’s genetics could optimise performance and reduce injury risks, while augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) technologies might turn ordinary runs and marathons into immersive adventures, breaking down geographical barriers and enhancing the running experience with digital overlays and simulated environments. AI-driven wearables may be able to provide real-time health monitoring and injury prediction, ensuring safer running practices. Additionally, environment-adaptive wearables could adjust to changing conditions for optimal comfort, and social running platforms might use holographic technology to connect runners globally, fostering community. Another possible future could involve energy-harvesting gear, which may eliminate the need for external power sources for wearable technology, marking a significant leap forward in how runners engage with technology and each other.

Probable Futures

By 2030, the running scene is likely to reflect advancements grounded in today’s emerging technologies and health trends.

The wearable technology market in Australia, indicative of a global trend, is projected to expand from AU $554.70m in 2024 to AU $639.80m by 2028, reflecting the increasing use of wearables among runners for enhanced training experiences (Statista, 2024). Concurrently, the fitness app development market is expected to grow at an annual rate of 17.6%, from $1.3 billion in 2022 to a substantial increase by 2030, highlighting the move towards hyper-personaliSed AI for tailored running plans (Grand View Research, 2022).

This technology-driven approach is complemented by the rising popularity of virtual reality (VR) in providing immersive running experiences, suggesting its integration into regular training regimes. The community aspect of running is also evolving, with platforms like Strava leading the way in fostering online and offline runner connections, emphasising the growing importance of social connectivity in the sport.

The emphasis on AI and wearable tech, including the projection that AI’s role in sports analytics will grow by 32.7% by 2024, points towards a future where data-driven training and injury prevention become the norm, making running more efficient and enjoyable (Solute Labs, 2024). The integration of augmented reality (AR) and the anticipated mainstreaming of virtual races further indicate a probable future where digital innovation significantly influences running culture, making it more accessible and engaging for runners worldwide.

Preferable Futures

By 2030, running should be inclusive, accessible, and health-focused, leveraging technology to enhance rather than dominate the running experience. It should serve a wider running community that breaks down barriers and makes running accessible to people of all ages, abilities, and backgrounds. It imagines a world where the benefits of running—both physical and mental—are universally acknowledged and supported by both technology and society.

To achieve this vision by 2030, policy changes could encourage the development of accessible and affordable running technologies, ensuring they are available to a wider population. Initiatives should focus on broadening access to running, leveraging community efforts to promote its health and social benefits. Inclusive program designs will ensure participation across diverse groups. Community-driven initiatives could aim to introduce running to underrepresented groups, promoting running as a tool for health improvement and social connection. Additionally, running programs could be designed with inclusivity in mind, considering different needs and preferences to ensure everyone can participate.

Technology will play a crucial role in achieving this preferable future. AI could personalise training programs to accommodate individual health conditions and goals, making running safer and more effective for everyone. Societal support, emphasising holistic health, will increase running’s appeal. A cultural shift towards valuing holistic health could drive greater participation in running, recognising its benefits beyond physical fitness. Community support systems, both online and offline, could offer encouragement and advice, fostering a sense of belonging among runners. Educational campaigns could also raise awareness about the importance of physical activity, encouraging more people to take up running as part of their lifestyle.

In this preferable future, running becomes more than just a physical activity; it is a means to enhance well-being, connect with others, and engage with technology in a positive, health-promoting way. Collaboration among tech creators, policymakers, community figures, and runners is key to making running accessible and enjoyable for everyone.

Images:

1. Generated by DallE, which depicts a scientist analysing a DNA strand on a computer screen, highlighting specific genes related to athletic performance and nutrition needs, symbolising the concept of genetic customisation for training. The environment is a high-tech lab with futuristic technology, indicating the advanced nature of tailoring workouts and diets based on an individual’s genetic blueprint.
2. Generated by DallE, which depicts a runner wearing augmented reality glasses, experiencing a vibrant, digital overlay on a scenic trail. The AR display shows navigation arrows, heart rate, distance, and motivational messages in the runner’s field of vision, transforming a regular run into an interactive adventure. The background features a beautiful forest path, indicating the augmentation of a natural environment with digital information.
3. Generated by DallE, which depicts a runner participating in a fully immersive virtual reality marathon, wearing a VR headset and running on a treadmill at home. The VR environment simulates the iconic London Marathon, complete with a virtual crowd cheering, weather effects like sunlight and wind, and famous landmarks. The runner’s living room is visible, juxtaposing the virtual experience with the real-world setting of home exercise.
4. Generated by DallE, which depicts a runner wearing a smartwatch and other wearables equipped with AI technology, monitoring health metrics in real-time. The display shows heart rate, pace, and predictive alerts for potential injuries, symbolizing AI-driven predictive health monitoring. The background indicates a park setting, emphasizing outdoor running while being closely monitored by advanced technology for a safer and more informed exercise session.
5. Generated by DallE, which depicts a social running platform interface showing holographic avatars of runners from around the world, participating in a virtual race together. The screen displays real-time stats, chat features, and a vibrant, global map tracking each runner’s progress, fostering a sense of community and competition among participants who are physically apart but digitally connected.
6. Generated by DallE, which depicts running shoes equipped with energy-harvesting technology, converting kinetic energy from running into electrical power. These innovative shoes are connected to wearable technology, charging devices as the runner moves. The image shows the shoes in action, with visual effects illustrating the energy conversion process and highlighting the self-sustaining power feature.
7. Generated by DallE, which depicts a sustainable running gear scene showcasing eco-friendly running shoes and clothing. The gear is made from sustainable materials and manufactured through ethical processes. The scene emphasizes the consumer demand for products that align with environmental responsibility. The background highlights a green and clean running environment, symbolising the link between running and a commitment to preserving the planet.
8. Generated by DallE, which depicts a runner equipped with the latest sophisticated wearable technology, featuring a sleek design that provides detailed analyses on performance and health indicators. The wearable device is capable of offering real-time data to help prevent injuries by allowing the runner to adjust their training accordingly. The background shows a serene park setting, highlighting the blend of technology and nature in enhancing the running experience.
9. Generated by DallE, which depicts A running scene where the runner is guided by an artificial intelligence personal trainer. The AI analyzes the runner’s performance in real-time, offering personalized training advice that adapts based on the runner’s progress, fatigue levels, and environmental factors. The AI appears as a holographic interface next to the runner, displaying data and suggestions to improve the running session.
10. Generated by DallE, which depicts A runner experiencing an augmented reality (AR) outdoor run, where digital information and motivational cues are overlayed onto their real-world environment. The AR technology displays interactive maps, performance metrics, and virtual challenges directly in the runner’s field of vision, making the run more engaging and informative. The scene includes a futuristic city park, enhancing the immersive experience.
11. Generated by DallE, which depicts a digital platform enhancing community features for runners. The interface shows a vibrant, social network where runners can connect, share routes, and compete in challenges. It showcases community-driven events, leaderboards, and shared achievements, emphasising the connectivity and motivation provided by the platform. The background depicts a collage of user profiles, running stats, and virtual medals, symbolising the sense of belonging and achievement within the running community.
12. Generated by DallE, which depicts a runner using cutting-edge technology for detailed performance monitoring. This includes wearables that measure everything from heart rate to stride length, offering insights into improving efficiency and reducing the risk of injury.

Reference List:

• Bell, W., 1998. Making people responsible: The possible, the probable, and the preferable. American Behavioral Scientist, 42(3), pp.323-339.
• Alger, K 2017, Future Running Tech: Going Faster in 2030, Man v Miles.
• Amity Co 2023, How Strava formed the world’s biggest team: A community case study, www.amity.co.
• Jensen, MM & Mueller, F ’Floyd’ 2014, ‘Running with technology’, Proceedings of the 26th Australian Computer-Human Interaction Conference on Designing Futures: the Future of Design.
• Qian, J, McDonough, DJ & Gao, Z 2020, ‘The Effectiveness of Virtual Reality Exercise on Individual’s Physiological, Psychological and Rehabilitative Outcomes: A Systematic Review’, International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, vol. 17, no. 11, p. 4133.
• Scott, B 2023, The Running Revolution: How Running is Taking Over the World, Exeposé Online.

Acknowledgement of Generative AI Use

This blog post was produced with the assistance of ChatGPT. I utilised Voicebooking to create the voice over for my video.